Apple's stock has been battered over the past year due to fears about iPhone unit sales growth. Yesterday's fiscal Q1 2016 results finally give us some data to understand how realistic these fears are. Apple reported iPhone shipments of 74.8 million units in the quarter, growing marginally over fiscal Q1 2015. However, Apple also increased iPhone channel inventory by 3.3 million over the quarter compared to a decline of 0.2 million in the same quarter last year. Keeping in mind that Apple reports sell-in (shipments), not sales to end users, this implies that iPhone sell-through actually declined by 4.3% YoY, from 74.7 million to 71.5 million units. This is the first such decline in the history of the product.

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported some of Xiaomi's financial metrics from 2012 and 2013. The two most interesting data points were the proportion of Xiaomi's revenue from services (~1%) and their sales and marketing costs.

With the iPhone 6 (and 6 Plus) launch just around the corner, this may be a good time to review smartphone market share and usage share trends around the world. As these data points reflect the tail end of the iPhone's product cycle, we should expect a market share bounce over the coming months. On the other hand, movements in usage share are unlikely to be as sharp.

IDC announced their smartphone shipment estimates for Q2 2014 last week, but the chart above seems to have captured all the attention. Regular readers may already be aware that I am a proponent of usage-based segmentation, rather than price-based segmentation. However, data can always be useful when interpreted correctly.

The "devices & services strategy", as coined by Steve Ballmer, has long been my pet peeve. This is because it clearly attempts to conflate two business models that are diametrically opposed to one another -- monetizing hardware vs. services. While my initial analysis focused on Microsoft, this applies to other companies as well. Of course, this hasn't stopped analysts from arguing in favor of the very same "devices & services strategy" for Apple. The lack of specificity in this argument has always amused me. So let's be specific and look at the avenues available to Apple for monetizing services.

Apple is widely expected to launch an iPhone with a larger screen later this year. As this is expected to be a major upgrade, analysts expect a mid-year slowdown in sales followed by a blowout holiday quarter. In line with this expectation, Canaccord Genuity has released their regional installed base and sell-through estimates. Data from 2010 to 2013 is estimated from Apple's actual sell-through numbers, while figures for 2014 and 2015 are projected. This data is could be useful to understand current regional trends and analyst tendencies.

Flurry just posted some interesting data comparing Xiaomi's users to those of the iPhone and other Android smartphones. We already know that Xiaomi's users download roughly twice as many apps as iPhone and Android users, but now we also have comparative data on engagement and user demographics. This data paints a picture that is very different from the popular narrative surrounding Xiaomi, i.e. it only caters to low-end, price sensitive customers.

I have previously written about the pricing dynamics in the US smartphone market and the potential impact on premium smartphone sales. On this topic, CIRP released an interesting report which showed that higher-end iPhone models were more popular with buyers on financing plans (as compared to those on subsidized plans). This data presents a great opportunity to test my "profit trap hypothesis" and inject some much needed objectivity into this discussion.

There has been considerable debate about the metrics used to define performance in the smartphone industry. Because of the regionally fragmented nature of distribution, some view global market share figures with cynicism. My argument was that market share patterns by country could give us a better understanding of these trends. While market share of shipments is certainly a leading indicator for install base (and consequently, usage), it only gives us a part of the story. Contrasting regional market share and usage share (as a proxy for install base) may give us an even better understanding.

Apple's rumored acquisition of Beats Electronics for $3.2 billion seems to have set the tech blogosphere on fire. Some industry observers have struggled to understand the rationale and have delved into Beats' assets, from the fledgling music streaming service to the industry clout held by Jimmy Iovine, in order to demystify the proposed deal. Interestingly, the secret to understanding this may lie in Apple's business model itself.

Yesterday, Apple posted solid financial results for fiscal Q2, mainly on the back of better than expected iPhone sales in China and Japan. However, a lot of discussion seems to be revolving around the sudden slowdown in iPad sales. I think explaining this decline requires a small addition to my previous analyses on usage based segmentation and the structure of the tablet market.

It's time again for my quarterly recap of smartphone market share figures from Gartner and Kantar. For those who missed it, here's the Q3 recap. In Q4, Android continued to dominate the charts, while the iPhone saw a lower than expected seasonal bump. And as I expected, Windows Phone's recent growth seems to have stalled.

Apple's stock was down more than 8% in after-hours trading as the company reported roughly flat earnings for fiscal Q1. Two key data points from the report were -- 1) iPhone sales that missed analyst estimates by a wide margin and, 2) a forward guidance that implied a YoY revenue decline in fiscal Q2. Let's attempt to understand the disparity between analyst forecasts and the market realities facing Apple.

Yesterday, Verizon reported that it activated 8.8 million smartphones in Q4 2013, a 10% decline from the 9.8 million it activated in Q4 2012. While it declined to break out iPhone activations, we do have some data that could help us gauge the iPhone's sales performance in the US market.

Some data points released over the past week seem to lend credence to the "profit trap" hypothesis as it relates to Apple and Samsung. The first was Samsung's announcement of a profit decline in Q4. The second was a set of data points from Kantar which showed a decline in the iPhone's US market share.

Today, Apple and China Mobile finally announced a distribution partnership that had been heavily rumored for months. While the deal to sell iPhones through China Mobile isn't surprising, the wild variation in analyst estimates is. Let's take a look at a few wrinkles that may be playing havoc with these estimates.

Last week, AT&T announced lower pricing options for their contract subscribers by splitting device subsidy costs from service plans. This seems like a direct result of T-Mobile's move to eliminate subsidies and slash contract prices. This move should have major repercussions for operating margins at carriers and the sales of premium smartphones.

My previous post explained the mechanics of the profit trap and ways to identify basis of competition shifts in the smartphone industry. My hypothesis was based on the distribution of customers across the spectrum of identity and utility, i.e. the identity-utility continuum. It may be worthwhile to delve a little deeper into the impact of utility and identity on consumer purchasing behavior and basis of competition. In retrospect, this post may have been better served as a "prequel" to profit trap mechanics.

In my post on Apple & Samsung's Profit Trap, I had explained how profit share was a flawed metric for gauging the long-term health of a company or platform. I had also detailed the perils of relying on a premium hardware strategy. While this post generated a lot of discussion, the mechanics of the "profit trap" still seem to be poorly understood. The goal of this post is to identify the primary customer segments and regions that could signal a shift in the basis of competition.